climate change Archive

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Risks of 4 Degree Hotter World by End of Century

All regions of the world would suffer – some more than others – but the report finds that the poor will suffer the most.

WASHINGTON, November 18, 2012 – The world is barreling down a path to heat up by 4 degrees at the end of the century if the global community fails to act on climate change, triggering a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people, according to a new scientific report released today that was commissioned by the World Bank.

Turn Down the Heat, a snapshot of the latest climate science prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics, says that the world is on a path to a 4 degree Celsius[1] (4°C) warmer world by end of this century and current greenhouse gas emissions pledges will not reduce this by much..

“A 4 degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided – we need to hold warming below 2 degrees,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest.”

The report says that the 4°C scenarios are potentially devastating: the inundation of coastal cities; increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher under and malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased intensity of tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems.

“The Earth system’s responses to climate change appear to be non-linear,” points out PIK Director, John Schellnhuber. “If we venture far beyond the 2 degrees guardrail, towards the 4 degrees line, the risk of crossing tipping points rises sharply. The only way to avoid this is to break the business-as-usual pattern of production and consumption.”

The report notes, however, that a 4°C world is not inevitable and that with sustained policy action warming can still be held below 2°C, which is the goal adopted by the international community and one that already brings some serious damages and risks to the environment and human populations.

“The world must tackle the problem of climate change more aggressively,” Kim said. “Greater adaptation and mitigation efforts are essential and solutions exist. We need a global response equal to the scale of the climate problem, a response that puts us on a new path of climate smart development and shared prosperity. But time is very short.”

The World Bank Group’s work on inclusive green growth has found that with more efficient and smarter use of energy and natural resources opportunities exist to drastically reduce the climate impact of development without slowing poverty alleviation or economic growth.

“While every country will take a different pathway to greener growth and balance their own need for energy access with energy sustainability, every country has green growth opportunities to exploit,” said Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development.

Those initiatives could include: putting the more than US$ 1 trillion of fossil fuel and other harmful subsidies to better use; introducing natural capital accounting into national accounts; expanding both public and private expenditures on green infrastructure able to withstand extreme weather and urban public transport systems designed to minimize carbon emission and maximize access to jobs and services; supporting carbon pricing and international and national emissions trading schemes; and increasing energy efficiency – especially in buildings – and the share of renewable power produced.

“This report reinforces the reality that today’s climate volatility affects everything we do,” Kyte said. “We will redouble our efforts to build adaptive capacity and resilience, as well as find solutions to the climate challenge.”

Kyte said, “The Bank commissioned the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics to make a summary analysis of the latest climate science, as a means to better understand the potential impact of a 4°C warmer world in developing countries.”

Executive Summary

Full Report

Quotes (approved for attribution) from global leaders on the World Bank “Turn Down The Heat” report and the climate challenge

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Live webinar on evaluation of climate change intervention for excluded populations, 11 June

Evaluation of climate change intervention for excluded populations. Where: in front of your personal or work computer anywhere in the world. When: Monday, 11th June 2012, 1:00 to 2:00 PM New York time. Cost: Free. No prior registration required.

Within the series of monthly live webinars on Equity-focused evaluations , UNICEF, UNWOMEN, the Rockefeller Foundation, Claremont Graduate University, and IOCE in partnership with IDEAS, OHCHR, UNEG Task Force on National Evaluation Capacities, UNDP, ILO, IDRC and PAHO, are pleased to announce the fourteenth webinar with *Julian BARR*, /International Trade & Development (ITAD)/, and *Robbie GREGOROWSKI*, /International Trade & Development (ITAD)/, on “*Evaluation of climate change intervention for excluded populations*”.

Detailed agenda and instruction on how to log in are available at MyM&E
[http://mymande.org/sites/default/files/June11-2012_Julian-Robbie_0_0.pdf].

Recording and presentations of previous webinars on *“Emerging Practices in
Development Evaluation” are available at http://mymande.org/webinars/webcast-main-page/3 Source: Relac

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ci:grasp

Home | ci:grasp.

ci:grasp aims to support decision-makers and climate change adaptation practitioners in developing countries by providing structured and coherent climate information. Information is presented following an impact chain logic, where climate change stimuli lead to climate impacts, which in turn require adaptation measures. Information is currently available for nine focal countries. The platform contains almost 1,000 thematic maps and nearly 300 outlines of existing adaptation projects. It will be expanded continuously. Users are invited to contribute to the adaptation project database, share their knowledge on adaptation, and give feedback on ci:grasp.

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Tracking the effectiveness of climate change adaptation

GTZ. Monitoring and evaluation – tracking the effectiveness of adaptation.

M&E plays a central role in capturing whether and how interventions lead to the successful achievement of their objectives. This is of particular importance in the relatively new field of adaptation to climate change, where interventions are still in the phase of being defined and tested. Showing which ad aptation interventions lead to desired results is also important in securing funding, since financial resources are being made available specifically for adaptation measures and funders want proof of how they enable adaptation.

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EDC 2020 – Final Event

Final EDC 2020 event to present results of three years of research on the impact of new actors in international development, energy security democracy and political development and climate change on European Development Cooperation.

via EDC 2020 – Final Event.

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UNCTAD Least Developed Countries Report

On Friday 26 November, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) launched its Least Developed Countries Report 2010, subtitled ‘Towards a new
international development architecture for LDCs’. The report argues that the world’s
49 Least Developed Countries (LDCs) need ‘‘more and better-designed financing — rising from an estimated $4 billion to $17 billion per annum by 2030 — to cope with the difficulties posed by climate change. The report calls for ‘‘a new international architecture to support LDCs”, which would establish international funds for
infrastructure, green development, climate change mitigation, productive capacities
and financing innovation for LDCs. Climate change is a particularly crucial issue for
LDCs, as the report notes that it has been estimated that ‘‘for every 1˚C rise in
average global temperatures, annual average growth in poor countries could drop by 2–3
percentage points, with no change in the growth performance of rich countries”. The
report is intended to inform debate at the Fourth United Nations Conference on Least Developed Countries, which will be held in May next year in Istanbul. http://tinyurl.com/24mfsb9

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Oxfam: Rich countries must not raid aid to pay climate debt

A new Oxfam report has warned that at least 4.5 million children could die unless world leaders deliver additional funds to help poor countries fight the growing impact of climate change, rather than diverting it from existing aid promises. The report, ‘Beyond Aid,’ also warns that at least 75 million fewer children are likely to attend school and 8.6 million fewer people could have access to HIV/AIDS treatment if aid is diverted to help poor countries tackle climate change. Without at least $50 billion a year in addition to the 0.7 per cent of national income rich countries have already pledged as aid, recent progress toward the Millennium Development Goals could stall and then go into reverse. Source: Oxfam, http://tinyurl.com/yc5atwj

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EU Development policy to focus on climate and democracy, says Mrs Carlsson

As president in office of the EU Council, the Minister for International Development Cooperation of Sweden, Gunilla Carlsson, presented to MEPs from the Committee on Development the presidency’s priorities for the second semester of 2009: development as part of the climate change agenda, democracy building as well as policy coherence and effectiveness. Helping to ensure that developing countries can effectively fight poverty in all its forms and meet the challenges that follow in the wake of the global economic crisis and climate change are the main priorities the Swedish presidency in the field of development. Replying to some questions of MEPs about the sometimes incoherent EU approach, the Swedish minister encouraged the European Parliament to make full use of its scrutinising powers (budgetary and co-decision procedures) in order to ensure that the EU makes the development cooperation more effective and ensures that different EU policy areas and actors work together more coherently. http://www.europarl.europa.eu